Tag Archives: Egypt government bonds

السندات الحكومية: الجزء الثاني

هذا هو الجزء الثاني من سلسة ممتازة مكونة من جزئين من إعداد إيزابيل إسترمان وترجمة ريم مكين، تدور حول السندات الحكومية: أذون الخزينة وأدوات الدين الأخرى المباعة من قبل الحكومة (بما في ذلك الحكومة المصرية) لتسديد قروضها. الجزء الأول هنا.

هذه المرة ننظر إلى تأثير الإعتماد على السندات الحكومية لتغطية إحتياجات الإقتراض.

لا يوجد شك في أن إقتصاد مصر يعاني، لكن إذا انتبهت لإصدار السندات ونتائجها، فستجد أن الحلقة المفرغة من الدين مستمرة. طالما أن دين مصر ينمو أسرع من إقتصادها، فستصبح الأمور سيئة.

تحتاج مصر إلى تنظيم حساباتها عن طريق خفض الإنفاق (إعادة توزيع الطاقة والدعم على الطعام هي الأشياء الأولى البدء بها) ورفع العوائد (زيادة الضرائب، وإدخال التمويلات العسكرية والوزارية داخل الخزينة إن أمكن).  إذا لم يتم ذلك بطريقة صحيحة، فمن الصعب تجنب الإضرار بالضعيف أو إغضاب القوي، ومن الصعب رؤية كيف تمتلك الإدارة الحالية القدرة السياسية للقيام بذلك.

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السندات الحكومية: الجزء الأول

هذا هو الجزء الأول من سلسة مكونة من جزئين من إعداد إيزابيل إسترمان وترجمة ريم مكين، تدور حول السندات الحكومية: أذون الخزينة وأدوات الدين الأخرى المباعة من قبل الحكومة (بما في ذلك الحكومة المصرية) لتسديد قروضها.

في السنتين الماضيتين أعتمدت مصر بشدة على البنوك المحلية في محاولة لتقليل العجز وتمويل إحتياجات القروض.

اقتراض المال من المقرضين يشبه إلى حد كبير إقتراض شخص من البنك: يُقيم البنك تاريخ رصيدك، تقترض مبلغ X  من الدولارات وتدفع Y  في المائة فوائد.

إصدار السندات مشابه جداً لهذا المثال

الرسم بأسفل هو مقدمة عن السندات الحكومية والغرض منها. نشرح المزيد عن ما تسببه  لمصر في الجزء الثاني.

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INFOGRAPHIC: Egypt’s Bond Addiction

This is PART 2 of an excellent two-part series by Isabel Esterman on government securities: treasury bonds and bills, and other debt instruments sold by a government (including Egypt) to finance its borrowings. Here is Part 1

This time we’re looking at the impact of relying on these financial instruments to cover borrowing needs.

We all know that Egypt is in really bad shape, but if you start paying attention to bond issuances and yields, you can watch (in horror) as this vicious circle of debt continues. As long as Egypt’s debt grows much faster than its economy, things are going to be rough.

As to how to solve this, one possible route is for Egypt to get its accounts in order, by cutting spending (restructuring energy and food subsidies is the obvious place to start) and raising revenues (increasing taxes, and possibly bringing military and ministerial funds into the treasury). Unless this is done very well, though, it’s hard to avoid hurting the vulnerable or angering the powerful, and it’s difficult to see how the current administration has the political capital to do either.

In theory, Egypt could also come up with a comprehensive stimulus plan, and convince lenders (domestic and foreign), that a big enough infusion of cash will get Egypt’s economy back in gear without the need to resort to austerity measures. For this to work, it would have to be a whole lot more detailed and credible than what we’re seeing come out of either the ruling party or the opposition.

Disclaimer: In the course of the research for this graphic, it was discovered that the proportion of government spending on debt servicing (to cover the repayment of interest and principal on a debt) was actually much larger than the figure  extensively used in the media. It stood at 35.7% rather than the “25%” often quoted in mainstream media.

We have consulted bankers and financial analysts to confirm this, but there is still controversy over  how it the figure should be calculated. It is a matter of terminology, so for number geeks out there, we have chosen to look at entries (sources below) for “interest” and “loan repayment” as a percentage of total budget outlay, rather than “interest” as a percentage of “expenditures”, which yields the more widely-cited figure of 25%.

infographicPart2Figures come from the following sources:

Public Debt/GDP

Budget allocation

Debt service payments



INFOGRAPHIC: A GUIDE TO GOVERNMENT BONDS

This is PART 1 of a two-part series by Isabel Esterman on government securities: treasury bonds and bills, and other debt instruments sold by a government (including Egypt) to finance its borrowings. 

In the last two years the Egyptian government has been leaning more heavily on domestic banks in an attempt to narrow its deficit and fund its borrowing needs.

Borrowing money from lenders is pretty much like an individual borrowing money from a bank: the bank evaluates your credit history, you borrow X dollars and pay Y% interest. This makes it relatively easy to have critically important public conversations about whether taking on a loan is a good idea.

Bond issuances aren’t actually that much more complicated, but the process is usually obscured by specialised jargon — YTM, coupons, issuances, securities, t-bills. People’s eyes glaze over, and transactions involving billions of dollars of public funds get shunted off to the financial pages.

Instead of headlines like “Government borrows LE6 billion at 14.77%” we see “CBE offers 6 billion in t-bills; average yield climbs to 14.77%”.

What is more, we often conflate government borrowing via treasury bond and bills (a key element of fiscal policy) with the secondary market for bonds (buying and selling government debt), which is a specialized, complicated financial tool where bonds are traded between investors.

Confusing the two is a problem because it means that people who aren’t bond traders (most of us) also aren’t kept well informed about how much money the government is borrowing.

The below is an introduction to government bonds and their purpose. We will explain more about what this means for Egypt in Part 2, coming tomorrow. 

bonds-part-I