The Wrap: Egypt Labour Disputes Threaten Recovery, Syria Tries to Close Import Gap

  • EGYPT

– This morning the government statistics agency, CAPMAS, published figures that show annual consumer inflation slowed to 9.7% in August, from 10.3% in July reflecting easing pressure on the currency. The pound has actually been appreciating slowly in the last month but as Rebel Economy has signalled before, that doesn’t mean the currency is strong.

– BG Group Drops Most in 10 months on Egypt Delays Bloomberg 

Remember that good news yesterday on BP’s gas discovery in Egypt? Well news that another British oil company, BG Group, is suffering project delays in Egypt shows how fragile the country’s energy sector can be.

Here’s an excerpt from the Bloomberg story covering BG’s announcement:

BG Group Plc fell the most in 10 months in London trading after saying project delays in Egypt [and Norway, but cut that bit out here] will curb oil and natural-gas output next year.

The company was the worst performer on the FTSE 100 Index. Political turmoil in Egypt has forced BG to delay its West Delta Deep Marine project, it said today in a statement.

Though this is bad news for BG’s stock, it’s even worse for Egypt which relies on the oil and gas sector as one of the backbones of the economy. The last two and half years have seen Egypt’s debts to oil companies mushroom partly because of costly energy subsidies putting a burden on the government’s finances, and partly because of increased reliance on imports, that has depleted foreign reserves.

That has put many big oil investors in a quandary over whether to continue pouring money into Egypt. Apache, on the of the largest foreign investors in Egypt, has already agreed to sell a 33% interest in its Egypt operations

– Dismissed trade union members threaten to file complaint with ILO  Egypt Independent 

Meanwhile, discontent is brewing in Egypt’s labour sector, where the new manpower minister Kamal Abu Eita has kicked up a storm by firing members of the Egyptian Federation of Trade Unions, including its head Gebali El-Maraghi.

Media reports suggest the dismissals happened because some members were part of the Muslim Brotherhood and continued to support the former Islamist president Mohammed Morsi. Others say a new amendment to a law meant the board had to be dissolved.

What is clear is that these internal tussles do not bode well for the labour movement, which is a critical element of a transitioning Egypt. 

– Qatar agrees to convert $2 billion into Egypt bonds: Reports – Ahram Online 

In a sign that Qatar will continue to support Egypt, it has agreed to convert another $2 billion into Egypt bonds, after converting $1 billion into three-year bonds in July, and $2.5 billion into 18-month bonds in May.

The bond purchase is one way of supporting Egypt’s widening budget deficit, which is close to 14% of GDP. With Qatar a strong supporter of the Brotherhood, it looked like it may withdraw aid after the ouster of Morsi, however, it also has close to $8 billion invested in Egypt, and that doesn’t include several corporate deals worth much more. In June of last year, Qatar agreed to back Citadel Capital’s subsidiary, Egyptian Refinery Company in a deal worth $3.7 billion.

  • LIBYA 

OMV “Halts Libyan Flows” – Libya Business News 

Protests in Libya have reportedly forced Austrian oil company, OMV to halt production. A company spokesman told Reuters:

OMV’s production in Libya, which was largely unaffected by the events of the last few weeks, has now been shut in as events have spread to the west of the country … OMV is closely monitoring the situation.

It is estimated that protests has led to a 30% decline in oil production, which is massive for a country that is so reliant on its oil. The government has been forced to import fuel to keep power stations running while queues grow at petrol stations.

Protestors are asking for more pay and calling for greater regional autonomy, which is difficult considering the government’s monopoly over oil.

But there could be some solution at a hearing this week…

– Libya Congress to hear proposals on oil deadlockReuters 

The crisis committee tasked with resolving Libya’s oil paralysis will brief the 200-member General National Congress by Wednesday with proposals on how to end the confrontation, Reuters reports.

A solution to the stalemate between the government and tribal mediators is becoming more critical. Last week, Libya’s oil output hit a post-war low of just 150,000 barrels per day compared to its capacity of 1.6 million bpd. 

  • SYRIA 

Syrian pound depreciates as talk of US strike grows – Syria Observer 

Unsurprisingly, this story, translated from Syria’s economic magazine, Iqtissad, indicates that traders expect a “dramatic rise of the US dollar against the pound if the US Congress votes  ‘yes’ to military action”.

With indications from Obama this morning that the US could pause any plans for attack on Syria, the pound could see some short-term respite.

A black market dealer said the Dollar could be worth as much as 350 Syrian pounds if Congress agreed to strike. But even without a strike, inflation is still plaguing Syrians who are now spending four times as much on staple goods. Syria’s official inflation rate has continued to increase though it still remains below unofficial estimates.

Syria looks to buy 135 thousand tons of rice after August tender closed without a deal – Syria News 

Syria’s Foreign Trade Organisation has opened another tender for rice as it struggles to keep up with demand. Sanctions and soaring inflation has hit the country’s economy. 

It needs at least 140,000 tons of rice a year to cover demand, according to the report.

Even as this report came out, Jordan announced that it would cancel agricultural imports to Syria due to the escalating violence.

Radi Tawarneh, Secretary General of the Jordanian Ministry of Agriculture, said Jordan had already made significant losses in its agricultural sector as a result of the Syrian crisis in the range of 80 million Jordanian dinars.

This will deprive Syria of about 180 thousand tons of fruit and vegetables, according to the report. 




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